Every figure on this site is somebody else's publication, read on a
stated date and linked to its source. This page says what is read, from whom and how
often, what each number means, and what the site does not do.
Most sources are read by a weekly sweep; the date each was last read is at the foot
of this page. Each
read keeps the file exactly as it was served (dated and fingerprinted, so a reading can
be checked again later) and is recorded even when nothing changed. A source that returns much less than it did
the week before is refused rather than loaded, so a broken download cannot pass for a
change. That date is the date of the check, not the date the page was built.
Each agency's position per country and class of buyer, in its own words, with ceilings where published
Country risk category
OECD
The category, 0 to 7, for every country, and every change since 1999
Minimum premium and interest
OECD Arrangement (Annex VI) and CIRR
The premium formula and its coefficients; the monthly reference interest rates
The state's debt
IMF – World Bank; IMF; Bank of Canada – Bank of England
Risk of debt distress; IMF programmes and their reviews; sovereign defaults and arrears by creditor
Guarantees issued
MIGA (World Bank Group)
Every guarantee issued, by country and year: cover written, not only offered
Claims
US Treasury, Foreign Credit Reporting System
Claims paid, recovered and still held by US government agencies, by country, quarterly
Sanctions
EU, UK (FCDO), US Treasury (OFAC), UN Security Council
Programmes in force and how many entries each lists, never who; the EU's kinds of measure
Contracts, projects and tenders
World Bank, EBRD, ADB, AIIB
Contract awards and who won them from where; projects; tenders open now
The economy
World Bank, IMF
GDP, imports, government spending, external debt, current account, reserves in months of imports
Commodity prices and exports
World Bank (Pink Sheet; WDI)
Monthly prices and indices for 71 commodities; what each country's goods exports are made of; each commodity-dependent country's main export, read by hand from a linked source
Repayment wall
World Bank (International Debt Statistics)
Debt service on public external debt by year and type of creditor, actual and projected
Ports and shipping routes
IMF PortWatch (with Kpler and the UN Global Platform)
Port calls and cargo per country over 90 days, and chokepoint transits over 30, against a year earlier
Armed conflict
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP/PRIO)
State-based armed conflicts per country and year, with their intensity
Bank exposure
Bank for International Settlements
Foreign banks' claims on each country, quarterly, and whose banks hold them
Government bonds abroad
Bank for International Settlements
Each government's bonds and notes in international markets, quarterly: outstanding, due within a year, and issued
Currencies
Bank for International Settlements
Each currency's monthly average rate against the US dollar, and its change over twelve months
Agency positions: a reading, not a rating
For 8 export credit agencies (Atradius DSB, Bpifrance, EIFO, EKN, Eksfin, US EXIM, OeKB, UKEF), the site reads the
country positions each publishes: whether it will cover a buyer in a country, for which
class of buyer (sovereign, public, bank, corporate), for which tenor, and any published
ceiling. Each is stored in the agency's own words, and the table on the home page shows
those words when you hover a cell.
Every reading is kept. When a position changes, the new one is stored beside
the old one; nothing is overwritten. That record is the Changes
page. UKEF publishes its own revision log, so its record goes back to 27 Apr 2013;
for the other agencies the record starts with this site's first reading.
Dates say what they are. Where an agency dates its page, that date is used.
Where it does not, a change is dated by the week the sweep first saw it and marked
first seen: the change happened on or before that day.
No answer is not a no. An agency that publishes nothing for a country is
shown as "no answer", never as closed. So is an agency that asks to be contacted about
each case (UKEF's "Contact us", Eksfin's "Case-by-case").
Largest first. The agencies' columns are ordered by their country's official
medium- and long-term export credit in 2025, from the table in US EXIM's annual
Competitiveness Report (a US government work, free to reuse). It is a country's
figure, not the agency's: Sweden's includes SEK beside EKN.
Development banks are a separate group. Beside the agencies, the home page
counts MIGA's guarantees and the EBRD's projects in each country over the last three
years. That shows where they are working, which is a different fact from where an
agency says it will cover. The World Bank is not shown yet: its public projects API
holds no approval after December 2024.
A position is general. It is an agency's published stance on a country, not
a decision about any transaction.
Other agencies are added one at a time, and only where their terms allow their
publications to be read and shown. Where they do not, the site links to them instead.
The price floor: an instrument you can open
Export credit has two published minimums. The premium floor is a formula printed in
Annex VI of the OECD Arrangement, with its coefficient tables; the interest floor is a
set of reference rates the OECD fixes monthly (CIRR). The calculator
puts the two together for any deal.
Read from the source
The coefficients come from
OECD/LEGAL/5005, January 2026, applicable from 22 January 2026, and were read against the
published text by a person, not only matched against an agency's tariff. Matching one
agency would also have matched a faithfully copied wrong table.
Checked against a published tariff
The model reproduces a
Participant's own published tariff to within a basis point across eight tenors,
including the term adjustment past ten years.
An absence is an answer
Where the Arrangement prints n/a
there is no minimum, because official support for that buyer in that country is not
contemplated at all. The calculator says so instead of showing a number.
The country risk category is the OECD's, for 200 countries,
with its history back to 1999. A minimum premium is the least any of the ~30
participating agencies may charge. It is not a quote, and nobody has offered it; what an
agency charges above it is its own business.
The coloured labels beside a country are facts, each from one publisher and linked to
it. They are never combined into a score or a rating. No badge means no record, not
no risk: the debt records cover the countries their publishers track, not every
country.
In default
Still in default at the latest year of the Bank of Canada – Bank of England sovereign default database, on at least 1% of GDP or USD 5 billion.
Arrears on record
The same record, below that size. Brazil's USD 0.25 billion owed to one official creditor is not Sri Lanka's USD 30 billion, and one label for both would mislead.
In debt distress, High debt risk
The IMF – World Bank debt sustainability rating for low-income countries, as published.
Restructuring agreed
A restructuring agreement in the last five years, from the creditors' own term sheets, each entry reviewed before it is shown.
IMF programme
An IMF arrangement still running, from the IMF's own monitoring database.
Currency down N% in 12 months
A currency crisis as the IMF's systemic banking crises database defines one (Laeven and Valencia): the dollar's price in the local currency up at least 30% in twelve months, which is a fall of about 23% in the currency's value, and at least 10 points more than the year before. From the BIS monthly averages, and only where the BIS reading is from the last twelve months. The label gives the fall in value.
War, Armed conflict (UCDP year)
A state-based armed conflict as the Uppsala Conflict Data Program defines one: armed force between two parties, at least one a state’s government, over government or territory, with at least 25 battle-related deaths in the latest year UCDP has published; “War” at 1,000 or more. UCDP lists a conflict under the governments in dispute, not where the fighting is, so a country that is only party to a conflict between states (the United States and the United Kingdom for the Red Sea) reads “Interstate”, with the other states named. UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, CC BY 4.0 (Davies, Pettersson and Öberg 2026; Gleditsch et al. 2002).
Reserves under 3 months of imports
The IMF's traditional rule of thumb, from the World Bank's reading of the last three years. Only for countries the OECD places in categories 1 to 7, and never inside a currency union (the euro area, the two CFA franc zones, the Eastern Caribbean), whose reserves are held jointly.
Sanctions
The strongest kind in force: on trade or finance, an arms embargo, or targeted listings only. See Sanctions.
Most agencies off cover, Limit nearly full, Agencies disagree, Changed recently
Read from the agency positions above: more than half shut; an agency saying its country limit is nearly used; one open where another is shut; a change in the last 30 days.
Sanctions: counted by programme, never by name
Four lists and one map. The EU's consolidated list and its Sanctions Map, the
UK Sanctions List, the US Treasury's SDN list and the UN Security Council's list, all
read weekly from the authorities themselves.
By programme, not address. An entry counts under the country its programme
is aimed at: a company in Dubai listed under the US Russia programme counts for Russia.
Every programme is mapped to its country by hand; a programme nobody has mapped stops
the weekly load. Programmes aimed at conduct (terrorism, cyber, human rights, drugs)
count for no country.
Kinds of measure come from the EU, the only authority that publishes them as
data. Whether a measure bans buying from a country or selling to it is read from its
own wording. For the UK, the US and the UN the site says a regime is in force and how
many it lists, and does not guess at the rest.
No names. The site does not store or show who is listed. To screen a
counterparty, use the authorities' own search.
Claims: the figure almost nobody publishes by country
Whether an insurer pays claims in a market is the question underneath the others, and
almost no one breaks it down by country. The US Treasury does, for US government
agencies only: what they paid, recovered and still hold, by country, each quarter. The
market pages show that, and say that it covers US agencies only. For everyone else,
insurers report to their association, and what comes back out is a world total:
Berne Union
The international association of export credit and investment insurers - public agencies and private underwriters together.
What it cannot tell you
Claims paid and recoveries broken down by region or country are collected from members and are not published. What is here is the association's own global total and nothing beyond it - a page cannot say whether insurers pay in one market rather than another from this source.
Read by hand
From Export Credit and Investment Insurance on 2026-08-21. Published as a PDF twice a year and in no machine-readable form, so it is typed in with the date it was read — which is the only way a figure like this can go stale visibly.
USD 2.5 trillion
of risk capital its members provide each year
13%
of global cross-border trade supported by that cover
USD 50 billion
paid in claims by its members since 2008
The written summaries: the model chooses words, never facts
Each market page opens with a few paragraphs written by an AI language model. The
model is given a fact sheet for that market and nothing else, and what it writes is
checked against that sheet before it can be published:
every number in the text must be a number on the sheet, and every country and
agency named must be one the sheet names;
no company is ever named, and no sentence may claim that one fact caused another;
text that fails is not published, and the page shows no summary rather than an
unchecked one;
a summary is rewritten only when the facts under it change, so a summary is always
about the market as it stands.
What a check cannot catch is a true sentence that leaves something out,
which is why the facts themselves, not the summary, are the page.
What this site is not
Not a quote, an offer or advice. Confirm anything that matters with the
source; the legal acts and agency pages linked here are the authority.
Not a rating. No score, no ranking of countries, no combined risk figure.
Not a list of names. No listed person, and no supplier, is named.
Not affiliated with any export credit agency. An independent research project
on public sources; see About.
Not tracking you. No accounts and no cookies; visits are only counted in
aggregate, without cookies, by the host (see privacy).
Found a wrong figure? Use the feedback form. A fixed reading appears on the
Changes page like any other change.